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The Determinants of Tornado Casualties and the Benefits of Tornado Shelters

Several recent powerful tornadoes have raised interest among the public and policymakers in tornado shelters. We estimate casualty functions (fatalities, injuries) based on factors like storm intensity, county population density, and time of day, using historical data from Oklahoma and then estimate expected tornado casualties for Oklahoma using historical tornado frequencies assuming no further market penetration of shelters. We then calculate the cost per life saved and injury prevented for shelters. The cost per life saved for shelters in permanent homes without discounting is around $30 million. Shelters will then provide cost effective protection for residents of mobile homes. (JEL Q27)