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Modeling Suburban and Rural-Residential Development Beyond the Urban Fringe

This article investigates how land-use regulations differentially influence suburban versus rural-residential development. Particular emphasis is placed on how both the provision of municipal services (e.g., sewer and water) and zoned maximum density constrain higher-density residential development. We estimated a spatially explicit model with parcel data on recent housing development in Sonoma County, California. To account for heterogeneity in compliance with zoning regulations, we used a random-parameter logit model. The designation of sewer and water services was the most important determinant of suburban development. Meanwhile, it did not significantly affect the likelihood of rural-residential development, which actually leapfrogged into areas well beyond them. (JEL Q24, R14, R21)