The Effect of Downzoning for Managing Residential Development and Density

Abstract

This study analyzes the effect of a downzoning policy on both the probability and the density of residential development using a difference-in-differences (DID) approach. Spatially explicit panel data on subdivisions are exploited to estimate average treatment effects for downzoned areas. Our results indicate that although downzoning does not significantly alter the probability of development, it does strongly affect the density of development. The DID model results suggest that the lower probability of development in agricultural zoning relative to the urban residential control area is not attributable to downzoning but rather to baseline differences that exist prior to policy adoption. (JEL Q24, R52)