Climate, Adaptation, and the Value of Forestland: A National Ricardian Analysis of the United States

Abstract

This study estimates an econometric Ricardian model of the effects of climate on forestry using a novel national data set of county-level net economic returns to forestland. Results show that climate change projections to 2050 will increase forest net returns on the middle latitudes of eastern U.S. timberland. We quantify the value of extensive margin adaptation to climate change by separately estimating climate’s effect on 11 distinct forest types. We find that approximately 69% of the positive climate change effect on eastern U.S. forestry arises from the value of extensive margin adaptation. Climate change impacts in the western United States are inconclusive.