Risk Disclosure and Home Prices: Evidence from California Wildfire Hazard Zones

Lala Ma, Margaret Walls, Matthew Wibbenmeyer and Connor Lennon

Article Figures & Data

  • Table 1

    Responsibility Area and Fire-Hazard-Severity Zone Categories Where Disclosure Laws Apply under California AB 1195

    Responsibility AreaFire-Hazard-Severity Zone
    NoneModerateHighVery High
    LocalNoNoNoYes
    StateNoYesYesYes
    FederalNoNoNoNo

    Note: “Yes” indicates disclosure laws apply. “No” indicates disclosure laws do not apply.

    • Table 2

      Summary Statistics

      AttributeFull SampleRegulatedNot Regulated
      MeanSDMeanSDMeanSD
      Wildfire hazard
       Ln(1 + WHP)1.692.744.133.371.182.28
       Previous fire0.020.140.090.290.010.08
      Property characteristics
       Price625,444846,988746,9071,006,942599,987807,154
       Bedrooms3.3620.8953.280.993.380.87
       Bathrooms2.3270.852.51.032.29
       Ln(lot size)−1.5430.96−0.821.4−1.690.76
       Year built1980.6724.911984.922.271979.7925.34
       Sq. ft.1,973.197,739.742,245.021,213.981,916.218,492.98
      Neighborhood characteristics
       % meeting standard language arts52.1513.7554.413.9851.6713.66
       % meeting standard math39.2215.4441.3416.338.7715.21
       Share white residents0.660.190.80.130.640.18
       Distance to protected areas (m)17,126.214,398.2211,679.379,222.4318,267.7615,013.67
       Incorporated0.770.420.370.480.860.35
      Observations1,556,426271,4131,295,013

      Note: The table presents the mean and standard deviations of various house characteristics for the full sample by regulatory status. The period in this sample is 2015–2020. WHP = wildlife-hazard potential.

      • Table 3

        Price Regression Using Wildfire-Hazard Potential (WHP)

        Log(Price)FullAddAdd
        County-by-Year Fixed EffectTract Fixed Effect
        Log(1 + WHP)−0.00242−0.002420.00232**
        (0.00187)(0.00184)(0.000960)
        Observations1,566,4261,566,4221,566,361
        R-squared0.6950.6970.780

        Note: The table presents a regression of the log of housing price on house and neighborhood controls and the log of WHP, a measure of wildfire risk. Each column represents a separate regression. The baseline regression in the first column includes house and neighborhood controls and fixed effects for the year and month of sale. Subsequent columns progressively add spatial fixed effects (denoted in the column header). House and neighborhood controls include number of bedrooms, number of bathrooms, log of lot size, age, indicators for the decade of construction, square feet, share white at the census tract in 2010 decennial census, measures of school quality (test scores for English/language arts and math), an indicator for location within the perimeter of any fire in the past five years, logged distance to a protected area, and an indicator for whether the area is incorporated. Standard errors are two-way clustered at the county and year level and are in parentheses.

        • * p < 0.1;

        • ** p < 0.05;

        • *** p < 0.01.

      • Table 4

        Price Regression using Regulatory Status

        Log(Price)FullLimit to High-Fire-Hazard Severity ZonesLimit to Build before 2008Add Fixed Effect County-by-YearAdd Fixed Effect TractAdd Fixed Effect Grid
        Regulated0.00970−0.0565*−0.0606*−0.0617*−0.0328**−0.0507**
        (0.0259)(0.0260)(0.0290)(0.0287)(0.0133)(0.0147)
        Observations1,566,426164,019141,606141,597141,512141,546
        R-squared0.6950.7010.7240.7260.7980.780

        Note: The table presents a regression of the log of housing price on house and neighborhood controls and an indicator for location in a regulated area. The first column begins with the sample of house sales in high-fire-hazard severity zones. Subsequent columns either make additional restrictions on the sample or progressively add spatial fixed effects (noted in the column header). All specifications include house and neighborhood controls (see Table 3 note) and fixed effects for the year and month of sale. Standard errors are two-way clustered at the county and year level and are in parentheses.

        • * p < 0.1;

        • ** p < 0.05;

        • *** p < 0.01.

      • Table 5

        Boundary Discontinuity Price Regression, High-Fire-Hazard Severity Zones

        Log(Price)Boundary Distance
        10 km8 km4 km2 km1 km0.75 km0.5 km0.4 km0.3 km0.2 km
        Regulated−0.0253*−0.0267*−0.0248−0.0343*−0.0402*−0.402**−0.0417**−0.0455**−0.0426**−0.0511**
        (0.0121)(0.0121)(0.131)(0.0151)(0.0154)(0.0153)(0.0144)(0.0160)(0.0170)(0.0187)
        Observations139,195138,052125,78998,03572,96764,16554,03349,26943,48335,039
        R-squared0.7990.8000.8070.8150.8210.8210.8220.8230.8250.827

        Note: The table presents a regression of the log of housing price on an indicator for location in a regulated area. All specifications include house and neighborhood controls (see Table 3 note), county-by-year fixed effects, month of sale fixed effects, and grid fixed effects. We narrow the bandwidth around the wildfire regulatory boundary from 10 km on either side of the boundary to 200 m. Standard errors are two-way clustered at the county and year level and are in parentheses.

        • * p < 0.1;

        • ** p < 0.05;

        • *** p < 0.01.

      • Table 6

        Variation in Observed Variables across the Boundary

        Fire-Hazard-Severity Zones, Built before 20084 km1 km500 m200 m
        Log(1 + WHP)1.28***1.19***1.14***0.84***0.48***
        (0.14)(0.14)(0.09)(0.12)(0.16)
        Bedrooms0.030.020.03−0.03−0.12
        (0.06)(0.06)(0.06)(0.08)(0.11)
        Bathrooms0.25***0.24***0.19***0.100.05
        (0.06)(0.07)(0.07)(0.08)(0.09)
        Ln(lot size)0.88***0.79***0.63***0.51***0.39***
        (0.15)(0.15)(0.12)(0.10)(0.09)
        Age−3.42−3.37−3.55*−2.46−0.31
        (2.21)(2.31)(1.93)(2.12)(1.74)
        Year built3.423.373.55*2.460.31
        (2.21)(2.31)(1.93)(2.12)(1.74)
        Log(sq. ft.)0.13***0.12***0.10**0.050.00
        (0.03)(0.04)(0.04)(0.05)(0.06)
        Share white residents0.03***0.02***0.010.010.01
        (0.01)(0.01)(0.01)(0.01)(0.01)
        % meeting standard language arts2.68***2.39***1.15**1.00**0.91***
        (0.96)(0.84)(0.55)(0.44)(0.36)
        % meeting standard math2.60***2.25***0.79**0.63*0.56
        (1.03)(0.89)(0.35)(0.32)(0.35)
        Previous fire0.010.01−0.00−0.01−0.01
        (0.01)(0.01)(0.02)(0.02)(0.02)
        Ln(distance to protected areas)0.040.040.09*0.07***0.06*
        (0.06)(0.06)(0.05)(0.03)(0.04)
        Observations71,40665,86445,99637,20425,317

        Note: The table presents results from regressions of a house attribute on an indicator for location within a regulated area. Coefficients for Regulated are presented, and all other coefficients are omitted; each cell presents the coefficient and standard error for a separate regression. The variables WHP, sq. ft., lot size, and distance to protected areas are logged. All regressions include boundary, grid, county-by-year, and month of sale fixed effects, and a control for location in an incorporated area. Standard errors are two-way clustered at the county and year level and are in parentheses. WHP = wildlife hazard potential.