The Impact of Weather Risk on Tenure Security: Evidence from Smallholder Farmers in Tanzania

Lisa Murken; Gregor Mager; Rahel Laudien; Kati Kraehnert; Christoph Gornott

doi:10.3368/le.100.4.101422-0079R1

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Figure 1
Number of Households Experiencing Different Types of Land Conflict, by Wave
Source: Trans-SEC household panel survey (waves 1–3).

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Table 1

Description of Key Variables

Variable	Description
Perceived tenure security	Household owns at least one plot that it perceives as very tenure secure
Land conflict	Household experienced a land conflict in the previous 12 months
New land certificate	Household acquired a new land certificate for a plot since the last panel wave or newly acquired a plot with a land certificate
Dry spell	Number of times a dry spell of 15 consecutive dry days (CDD15) occurred in the previous growing season, with each day < 0.5 mm precipitation
Precipitation CV	Coefficient of variation of the daily precipitation sum in the previous growing season
Median temperature	Median of the daily mean temperature in the previous growing season
Agricultural production	Crop production in kg / ha in the previous season
Total net income	Net annual household income, adjusted for purchasing power parity and converted to 2011 US$
Net wage income	Net annual wage income, adjusted for purchasing power parity and converted to 2011 US$
Wage employment	At least one household member was employed as wage laborer in the year preceding the interview

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Table 2

Summary Statistics for Key Variables

Variable	Mean	SD	Min.	Max.	N
Dependent variables
Perceived tenure security (wave 1)	0.36	0.48	0	1	763
Perceived tenure security (wave 2)	0.53	0.50	0	1	760
Perceived tenure security (wave 3)	0.86	0.35	0	1	777
Land conflict (wave 1)	0.10	0.30	0	1	741
Land conflict (wave 2)	0.09	0.29	0	1	763
Land conflict (wave 3)	0.09	0.29	0	1	773
Pastoral land conflict (wave 1)	0.03	0.16	0	1	741
Pastoral land conflict (wave 2)	0.06	0.24	0	1	763
Pastoral land conflict (wave 3)	0.07	0.26	0	1	773
Other land conflict (wave 1)	0.07	0.26	0	1	741
Other land conflict (wave 2)	0.04	0.18	0	1	763
Other land conflict (wave 3)	0.02	0.15	0	1	773
New land certificate (wave 2)	0.02	0.14	0	1	766
New land certificate (wave 3)	0.14	0.35	0	1	766
Main explanatory variables
Dry spell (wave 1)	0.19	0.39	0	1	778
Dry spell (wave 2)	0.41	0.49	0	1	778
Dry spell (wave 3)	1.45	0.50	0	2	778
Precipitation CV (wave 1)	2.02	0.17	1.67	2.31	778
Precipitation CV (wave 2)	1.74	0.16	1.47	2.03	778
Precipitation CV (wave 3)	1.54	0.12	1.35	1.86	778
Weather controls
Median temperature (wave 1)	24.95	0.69	22.69	25.65	778
Median temperature (wave 2)	24.84	0.70	22.90	25.61	778
Median temperature (wave 3)	23.66	0.74	22.02	24.46	778
Household and farm controls
Household size (wave 1)	4.91	2.26	1	18	778
Household size (wave 2)	5.28	2.33	1	19	778
Household size (wave 3)	5.37	2.32	1	15	778
Household owns livestock (wave 1)	0.67	0.47	0	1	778
Household owns livestock (wave 2)	0.82	0.39	0	1	778
Household owns livestock (wave 3)	0.82	0.39	0	1	778
Farm size (in ha) (wave 1)	1.60	1.03	0.00	6.07	770
Farm size (in ha) (wave 2)	1.69	1.03	0.02	6.27	771
Farm size (in ha) (wave 3)	1.51	0.92	0.002	6.18	777
Number of plots (wave 1)	2.59	1.16	1	7	770
Number of plots (wave 2)	2.45	1.05	1	7	766
Number of plots (wave 3)	2.82	1.24	1	7	777
Main channels
Agricultural production (kg/ha) (wave 1)	1,643.55	2,155.63	0.00	14,645.78	739
Agricultural production (kg/ha) (wave 2)	1,647.68	1,849.42	0.00	11,627.17	752
Agricultural production (kg/ha) (wave 3)	3,079.35	4,323.61	204.99	33,286.53	773
Total net income (wave 1)	1,499.74	1,766.98	−584.70	10,306.70	778
Total net income (wave 2)	1,692.99	1,995.52	−235.69	11,821.62	778
Total net income (wave 3)	2,137.04	2,188.23	−252.26	11,385.66	778
Net wage income (wave 1)	276.14	1,086.49	0.00	17,060.92	778
Net wage income (wave 2)	138.00	386.48	0.00	7,056	778
Net wage income (wave 3)	224.10	627.45	0.00	10,277	778
Wage employment (wave 1)	0.35	0.48	0	1	778
Wage employment (wave 2)	0.42	0.49	0	1	778
Wage employment (wave 3)	0.39	0.49	0	1	777

Sources: Trans-SEC household panel survey (waves 1–3), CHIRPS (precipitation), and ERA5 (temperature).

Note: The balanced sample comprises 778 households surveyed in all three waves. For some households, information is missing for some variables.

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Table 3

Effects of Weather on Perceived Tenure Security (OLS)

Dependent Variable	Perceived Tenure Security
Dependent Variable	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Dry spell	−0.05^***	−0.05^***
	(0.01)	(0.01)
Precipitation CV			−0.23^***	−0.23^***
			(0.05)	(0.06)
Median temperature	−0.20	−0.20	−0.06	−0.06
	(0.13)	(0.13)	(0.08)	(0.08)
Household controls	No	Yes	No	Yes
Household fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Enumerator fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Wave fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
R-squared	0.79	0.79	0.79	0.79
N	2,288	2,288	2,288	2,288

Sources: Trans-SEC household panel survey (waves 1–3), CHIRPS (precipitation), and ERA5 (temperature).

Note: Standard errors are clustered at the level of the precipitation data points.

* p < 0.10;
** p < 0.05;
↵*** p < 0.01.

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Table 4

Effects of Weather on Land Conflict (OLS)

Dependent Variable	Any Land Conflict				Conflicts with Pastoralists		Other Land Conflicts
Dependent Variable	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
Dry spell	0.05^***	0.05^***			0.02^*		0.03^***
	(0.01)	(0.01)			(0.01)		(0.01)
Precipitation CV			0.16^***	0.16^***		0.10^***		0.06^***
			(0.02)	(0.03)		(0.02)		(0.02)
Median temperature	−0.13^***	−0.13^***	−0.25^***	−0.25^***	−0.11^**	−0.17^**	−0.02	−0.08^***
	(0.04)	(0.04)	(0.07)	(0.08)	(0.04)	(0.07)	(0.02)	(0.02)
Household controls	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Household fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Enumerator fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Wave fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
R-squared	0.52	0.52	0.52	0.52	0.55	0.56	0.46	0.45
N	2,266	2,266	2,266	2,266	2,266	2,266	2,266	2,266

Sources: Trans-SEC household panel survey (waves 1–3), CHIRPS (precipitation), and ERA5 (temperature).

Note: Standard errors are clustered at the level of the precipitation data points.

↵* p < 0.10;
↵** p < 0.05;
↵*** p < 0.01.

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Table 5

Effects of Weather on the Acquisition of Land Certificates (OLS)

Dependent Variable	New Land Certificate
(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Dry spell (lag 1)	0.04^***	0.03^***	0.03^***
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
Dry spell		−0.02	−0.01
		(0.02)	(0.02)
Precipitation CV (lag 1)				−0.06^*	−0.21^***	−0.16^**
				(0.03)	(0.05)	(0.06)
Precipitation CV					−0.27^***	−0.22^**
					(0.08)	(0.09)
Median temperature	0.13^***	0.06	0.07	0.14^***	−0.02	0.01
	(0.04)	(0.10)	(0.08)	(0.04)	(0.04)	(0.05)
Household controls	No	No	Yes	No	No	Yes
Household fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Enumerator fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Wave fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
R-squared	0.66	0.66	0.68	0.66	0.67	0.68
N	1,521	1,521	1,516	1,521	1,521	1,516

Sources: Trans-SEC household panel survey (waves 1–3), CHIRPS (precipitation), and ERA5 (temperature).

Note: Standard errors are clustered at the level of the precipitation data points.

↵* p < 0.10;
↵** p < 0.05;
↵*** p < 0.01.

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Table 6

Potential Weather Impact Channel (OLS)

Dependent Variable	Agricultural Production (kg/ha) (Inverse Hyperbolic Sine)		Net Household Income (Inverse Hyperbolic Sine)		Net Wage Income (Inverse Hyperbolic Sine)		Wage Employment
Dependent Variable	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
Dry spell (lag 1)	−0.11^**		0.12		0.22		0.03
	(0.05)		(0.08)		(0.16)		(0.02)
Dry spell	−0.45^***		−0.18^***		0.14 ^*		0.02^**
	(0.02)		(0.06)		(0.07)		(0.01)
Precipitation CV (lag 1)		−0.25		0.43		0.84^**		0.14
		(0.24)		(0.54)		(0.32)		(0.09)
Precipitation CV		−1.30^***		−0.94^***		0.88^***		0.13^***
		(0.08)		(0.30)		(0.26)		(0.04)
Median temperature	−1.02	−0.08	−0.33	0.34	2.41^***	2.16^***	0.34^***	0.30^***
	(0.84)	(0.62)	(0.38)	(0.31)	(0.65)	(0.53)	(0.09)	(0.07)
Household controls	No	No	No	No	No	No	No	No
Household fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Enumerator fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Wave fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
R-squared	0.58	0.57	0.39	0.40	0.58	0.58	0.58	0.58
N	2,252	2,252	2,322	2,322	2,322	2,322	2,321	2,321