A Test of the Regional Growth-Instability Frontier Using State Data

Abstract

The application of the portfolio framework to the economy predicts the existence of a convex growth-instability frontier. Using two data sets on Gross State Product for the states of the United States, this hypothesis is tested. The tests confirm the existence of a convex frontier for economic growth and instability. The shape of the frontier is estimated, and growth-adjusted measures of economic instability based on the frontier are computed. Over long periods of time, economic instability is negatively correlated with a range of measures of economic diversity, providing further support for the portfolio view of economic growth. (JEL R11)