Estimating Leakage from Forest Carbon Sequestration Programs

Brian C. Murray, Bruce A. McCarl and Heng-Chi Lee

Abstract

Leakage from forest carbon sequestration—the amount of a program’s direct carbon benefits undermined by carbon releases else-where—depends critically on demanders’ ability to substitute non-reserved timber for timber targeted by the program. A nalytic, econometric, and sector-level optimization models are combined to estimate leakage from different forest carbon sequestration activities. Empirical estimates for the United States show leakage ranges from minimal (< 10%) to enormous (> 90%), depending on the activity and region. These results suggest that leakage effects should not be ignored in accounting for the net level of greenhouse gas offsets from land use and forestry mitigation activities. (JEL Q25, Q32)

This article requires a subscription to view the full text. If you have a subscription you may use the login form below to view the article. Access to this article can also be purchased.

Purchase access

You may purchase access to this article. This will require you to create an account if you don't already have one.