Forecasting Open Space with a Two-Rate Property Tax

Seong-Hoon Cho, Dayton M. Lambert and Roland K. Roberts


A two-rate property tax (TPT) imparts different tax rates on land and structures. A hypothetical TPT is evaluated as an instrument to promote open space preservation. The potential TPT effects on open space equilibrium levels were compared with simulated equilibrium levels reflecting the TPT policy shock. Ex ante results suggest that equilibrium open space levels were positively displaced following a revenue-neutral tax policy on land. About 76% of the households valued open space more following a land value tax rate of 9.04%, which suggests that households in certain locations are likely to support programs or policies preserving open space. (JEL Q58, R11)

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