How Can African Agriculture Adapt to Climate Change? A Counterfactual Analysis from Ethiopia

Salvatore Di Falco and Marcella Veronesi

Abstract

We analyze the impact of different adaptation strategies on crop net revenues in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. We estimate a multinomial endogenous switching regression model of climate change adaptation and crop net revenues and implement a counterfactual analysis. Households data are combined with spatial climate data. We find that adaptation to climate change based upon a portfolio of strategies significantly increases farm net revenues. Changing crop varieties has a positive and significant impact on net revenues when coupled with water conservation strategies or soil conservation strategies, but not when implemented in isolation. (JEL Q54, Q56)

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