How Can African Agriculture Adapt to Climate Change? A Counterfactual Analysis from Ethiopia

Salvatore Di Falco and Marcella Veronesi


We analyze the impact of different adaptation strategies on crop net revenues in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. We estimate a multinomial endogenous switching regression model of climate change adaptation and crop net revenues and implement a counterfactual analysis. Households data are combined with spatial climate data. We find that adaptation to climate change based upon a portfolio of strategies significantly increases farm net revenues. Changing crop varieties has a positive and significant impact on net revenues when coupled with water conservation strategies or soil conservation strategies, but not when implemented in isolation. (JEL Q54, Q56)

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