The Fiscal Impact of Natural Resource Windfalls: Evidence from a Peruvian Natural Experiment

References

1. ↵
   1. Abadie Alberto,
   2. Athey Susan,
   3. Imbens Guido,
   4. Wooldridge Jeffrey

   . 2017. When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering? NBER Working Paper 24003. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
2. ↵
   1. Allcott Hunt,
   2. Keniston Daniel

   . 2018. “Dutch Disease or Agglomeration? The Local Economic Effects of Natural Resource Booms in Modern America.” Review of Economic Studies 85 (2): 695–731.

   OpenUrl
3. ↵
   1. Angrist Joshua D.,
   2. Kugler Adriana D

   . 2008. “Rural Windfall or a New Resource Curse? Coca, Income, and Civil Conflict in Colombia.” Review of Economics and Statistics 90 (2): 191–215.

   OpenUrlCrossRef
4. ↵
   1. Aragón Fernando,
   2. Rud Juan Pablo

   . 2013. “Natural Resources and Local Communities: Evidence from a Peruvian Gold Mine.” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 5 (2): 1–25.

   OpenUrl
5. ↵
   1. Aragón Fernando,
   2. Rud Juan Pablo

   . 2016. “Polluting Industries and Agricultural Productivity: Evidence from Mining in Ghana.” Economic Journal 126 (597): 1980–2011.

   OpenUrl
6. ↵
   1. Arellano-Yanguas Javier

   . 2011. “Aggravating the Resource Curse: Decentralisation, Mining and Conflict in Peru.” Journal of Development Studies 47 (4): 617–38.

   OpenUrlCrossRef
7. ↵
   1. Arzaghi Mohammad,
   2. Henderson J. Vernon

   . 2005. “Why Countries Are Fiscally Decentralizing.” Journal of Public Economics 89 (7): 1157–89.

   OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
8. ↵
   1. Barrantes Roxana

   . 2007. “Los Fondos Públicos o de cómo el Presupuesto Público va Perdiendo Capacidad Redistributiva.” Working Paper 152. Lima, Peru: Consorcio de Investigación Económica y Social.
9. ↵
   1. Benjamini Yoav,
   2. Hochberg Yosef

   . 1995. “Controlling the False Discovery Rate: A Practical and Powerful Approach to Multiple Testing.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B 57 (1): 289–300.

   OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
10. ↵
    1. Bharath Sreedhar T.,
    2. Dahiya Sandeep,
    3. Saunders Anthony,
    4. Srinivasan Anand

    . 2009. “Lending Relationships and Loan Contract Terms.” Review of Financial Studies 24 (4): 1141–1203.

    OpenUrl
11. ↵
    1. Blackwell Matthew,
    2. Iacus Stefano,
    3. King Gary,
    4. Porro Giuseppe

    . 2009. “cem: Coarsened Exact Matching in Stata.” Stata Journal 9 (4): 524–46.

    OpenUrlWeb of Science
12. ↵
    1. Butkiewicz James L.,
    2. Yanikkaya Halit

    . 2010. “Minerals, Institutions, Openness, and Growth: An Empirical Analysis.” Land Economics 86 (2): 313–28.

    OpenUrlAbstract/FREE Full Text
13. ↵
    1. Cameron A. Colin,
    2. Miller Douglas L

    . 2015. “A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference.” Journal of Human Resources 50 (2): 317–72.

    OpenUrlAbstract/FREE Full Text
14. ↵
    1. Caselli Francesco,
    2. Michaels Guy

    . 2009. “Do Oil Windfalls Improve Living Standards? Evidence from Brazil.” NBER Working Paper 15550. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
15. ↵
    1. Caselli Francesco,
    2. Michaels Guy

    . 2013. “Do Oil Windfalls Improve Living Standards? Evidence from Brazil.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 5 (1): 208–38.

    OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
16. ↵
    1. Chen Xi,
    2. Nordhaus William D

    . 2011. “Using Luminosity Data as a Proxy for Economic Statistics.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences U S A 108 (21): 8589–94.

    OpenUrlAbstract/FREE Full Text
17. ↵
    1. Conrad Robert F.,
    2. Hool Bryce,
    3. Nekipelov Denis

    . 2018. “The Role of Royalties in Resource Extraction Contracts.” Land Economics 94 (3): 340–53.

    OpenUrlAbstract/FREE Full Text
18. ↵
    1. Contraloría General de la República del Perú

    . 2014. Estudio del Proceso de Descentralización en el Perú. Lima, Peru: Contraloría General de la República.
19. ↵
    1. Cust James,
    2. Poelhekke Steven

    . 2015. “The Local Economic Impacts of Natural Resource Extraction.” Annual Review of Resource Economics 7 (1): 251–68.

    OpenUrl
20. ↵
    1. Dalgaard Carl-Johan,
    2. Olsson Ola

    . 2008. “Windfall Gains, Political Economy and Economic Development.” Journal of African Economies 17 (Suppl 1): 72–109.

    OpenUrlCrossRef
21. ↵
    1. Datta Saugato

    . 2012. “The Impact of Improved Highways on Indian Firms.” Journal of Development Economics 99 (1): 46–57.

    OpenUrlCrossRef
22. ↵
    1. De Haas Ralph,
    2. Poelhekke Steven

    . 2019. “Mining Matters: Natural Resource Extraction and Firm-Level Constraints.” Journal of International Economics 117: 109–24.

    OpenUrl
23. ↵
    1. De Mello Luiz R

    . 2000. “Fiscal Decentralization and Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations: A Cross-Country Analysis.” World Development 28 (2): 365–80.

    OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
24. ↵
    1. Dillinger William

    . 1994. “Decentralization and Its Implications for Urban Service Delivery.” Urban Management and Municipal Finance Discussion Paper 16. Washington, DC: World Bank.
25. ↵
    1. Ding Ning,
    2. Field Barry C

    . 2005. “Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growths.” Land Economics 81 (4): 496–502.

    OpenUrlAbstract/FREE Full Text
26. Economist, The. 2003. “Gas for Peru v Green Imperialism.” August 7. Available at www.economist.com/node/1978816.
27. ↵
    1. Ferraro Paul. J.,
    2. Miranda Juan José

    . 2014. “The Performance of Non-experimental Designs in the Evaluation of Environmental Programs: A Design-Replication Study Using a Large-Scale Randomized Experiment as a Benchmark.” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 107: 344–65.

    OpenUrl
28. ↵
    1. Ferraro Paul. J.,
    2. Miranda Juan José

    . 2017. “Panel Data Designs and Estimators as Substitutes for Randomized Controlled Trials in the Evaluation of Public Programs.” Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 4 (1): 281–317.

    OpenUrl
29. ↵
    1. Gadenne Lucie

    . 2017. “Tax Me, but Spend Wisely? Sources of Public Finance and Government Accountability.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 9 (1): 274–314.

    OpenUrl
30. 1. Gadenne Lucie,
    2. Singhal Monica

    . 2013. “Decentralization in Developing Economies.” NBER Working Paper 19402. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
31. ↵
    1. Henderson J. Vernon,
    2. Storeygard Adam,
    3. Weil David N.

    2012. “Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space.” American Economic Review 102 (2): 994–1028.

    OpenUrlCrossRefPubMed
32. ↵
    1. Holm Sture

    . 1979. “A Simple Sequentially Rejective Multiple Test Procedure.” Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 6 (2): 65–70.

    OpenUrlCrossRefPubMedWeb of Science
33. 1. Iacus Stefano,
    2. King Gary,
    3. Porro Giuseppe

    . 2009. “cem: Software for Coarsened Exact Matching.” Journal of Statistical Software 30 (13): 1–27.

    OpenUrl
34. ↵
    1. Iacus Stefano,
    2. King Gary,
    3. Porro Giuseppe

    . 2011. “Multivariate Matching Methods That Are Monotonic Imbalance Bounding.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 106 (493): 345–61.

    OpenUrlCrossRef
35. ↵
    1. Iacus Stefano,
    2. King Gary,
    3. Porro Giuseppe

    . 2012. “Causal Inference without Balance Checking: Coarsened Exact Matching.” Political Analysis 20 (1): 1–24.

    OpenUrlCrossRef
36. ↵
    1. IDB (Inter-American Development Bank)

    . 2002. “Program for Institutional Strengthening and Environmental and Social Management Support for the Camisea Gas Project: Loan Proposal.” Project PE0233. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank. Available at www.iadb.org/en/projects/project-description-title,1303.html?id=PE0233.
37. ↵
    1. IDB (Inter-American Development Bank)

    . 2004. “Informe Resumen de la Ejecución de los Compromisos Ambientales y Sociales del Projecto Camisea.” Washington, DC: Banco Ineramericano de Desarrollo (Inter-American Development Bank). Available at http://www.labor.org.pe/descargas/2004%2012%20Cumplimiento%20de%20Condiciones%20del%20Proyecto%20Camisea.pdf.
38. ↵
    1. Imbens Guido W.,
    2. Wooldridge Jeffrey M

    . 2009. “Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation.” Journal of Economic Literature 47 (1): 5–86.

    OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
39. ↵
    1. Keele Luke

    . 2010. “An Overview of rbounds: An R Package for Rosenbaum Bounds Sensitivity Analysis with Matched Data.” Unpublished manuscript. Ohio State University, Columbus, OH. Available at https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/c0b1/823186cf5e0869ee35657d6809f803c8e35c.pdf.
40. ↵
    1. King Gary,
    2. Nielsen Richard

    . 2016. “Why Propensity Scores Should Not Be Used for Matching.” Unpublished manuscript. Harvard University, Cambridge, MA. Available at http://gking.harvard.edu/files/gking/files/psnot.pdf.
41. ↵
    1. King Gary,
    2. Zeng Langche

    . 2006. “The Dangers of Extreme Counterfactuals.” Political Analysis 14 (2): 131–59.

    OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
42. ↵
    1. Kotsadam Andreas,
    2. Tolonen Anja

    . 2013. “Mineral Mining and Female Employment.” OxCarre Research Paper 114. Oxford, UK: Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies.
43. ↵
    1. Litschig Stephan,
    2. Morrison Kevin M

    . 2013. “The Impact of Intergovernmental Transfers on Education Outcomes and Poverty Reduction.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 5 (4): 206–40.

    OpenUrl
44. ↵
    1. Loayza Norman,
    2. Rigolini Jamele

    . 2016. “The Local Impact of Mining on Poverty and Inequality: Evidence from the Commodity Boom in Peru.” World Development 84: 219–34.

    OpenUrl
45. ↵
    1. Loayza Norman V.,
    2. Rigolini Jamele,
    3. Calvo-González Oscar

    . 2014. “More Than You Can Handle: Decentralization and Spending Ability of Peruvian Municipalities.” Economics and Politics 26 (1): 56–78.

    OpenUrl
46. ↵
    1. Lunceford Jared K.,
    2. Davidian Marie

    . 2004. “Stratification and Weighting via the Propensity Score in Estimation of Causal Treatment Effects: A Comparative Study.” Statistics in Medicine 23 (19): 2937–60.

    OpenUrlCrossRefPubMedWeb of Science
47. ↵
    1. Maldonado Stanislao,
    2. Ardanaz Martin

    . 2017. “Natural Resource Windfalls and Efficiency of Local Government Expenditures: Evidence from Peru.” Rochester, NY: SSRN. Available at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3153302.
48. ↵
    1. Mehlum Halvor,
    2. Moene Karl,
    3. Torvik Ragnar

    . 2006. “Institutions and the Resource Curse.” Economic Journal 116 (508): 1–20.

    OpenUrl
49. ↵
    1. Meyer Bruce D

    . 1995. “Natural and Quasi-experiments in Economics.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 13 (2): 151–61.

    OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
50. ↵
    1. Michaels Guy

    . 2011. “The Long Term Consequences of Resource-Based Specialisation.” Economic Journal 121 (551): 31–57.

    OpenUrl
51. ↵
    1. Michalopoulos Stelios,
    2. Papaioannou Elias

    . 2013. “Pre-colonial Ethnic Institutions and Contemporary African Development.” Econometrica 81 (1): 113–52.

    OpenUrlCrossRefPubMedWeb of Science
52. ↵
    1. Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas

    . 2015. “Fondo de Desarrollo Socioeconómico de Camisea—FOCAM.” Lima: Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas. Available at www.mef.gob.pe/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=451&Itemid=100962&lang=es.
53. ↵
    1. Morgan Stephen L.,
    2. Todd Jennifer J

    . 2008. “A Diagnostic Routine for the Detection of Consequential Heterogeneity of Causal Effects.” Sociological Methodology 38 (1): 231–81.

    OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
54. ↵
    1. Munilla Isabel

    . 2010. People, Power, and Pipelines: Lessons from Peru in the Governance of Gas Production Revenues. Boston: Oxfam America.
55. ↵
    1. Perry Guillermo,
    2. Olivera Mauricio

    . 2009. “Natural Resources, Institutions and Economic Performance.” Bogatá, Colombia: Fedesarrollo. Available at http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTLACOFFICEOFCE/Resources/870892-1265238560114/Paper_OxCarre_Dubai_GPerry_Molivera_Nov15.pdf.
56. ↵
    1. Rosenbaum Paul R

    . 1987. “Model-Based Direct Adjustment.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 82 (398): 387–94.

    OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
57. ↵
    1. Rosenbaum Paul R

    . 2002. Observational Studies. New York: Springer.
58. ↵
    1. Rosenbaum Paul R.,
    2. Rubin Donald B

    . 1983. “The Central Role of the Propensity Score in Observational Studies for Causal Effects.” Biometrika 70 (1): 41–55.

    OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
59. ↵
    1. Shimazaki Hideaki,
    2. Shinomoto Shigeru

    . 2007. “A Method for Selecting the Bin Size of a Time Histogram.” Neural Computation 19 (6): 1503–27.

    OpenUrlCrossRefPubMedWeb of Science
60. ↵
    1. Sigman Hilary

    . 2014. “Decentralization and Environmental Quality: An International Analysis of Water Pollution Levels and Variation.” Land Economics 90 (1): 114–30.

    OpenUrlAbstract/FREE Full Text
61. ↵
    1. Skidmore Mark,
    2. Toya Hideki

    . 2013. “Natural Disaster Impacts and Fiscal Decentralization.” Land Economics 89 (1): 101–17.

    OpenUrlAbstract/FREE Full Text
62. ↵
    1. van der Ploeg Frederick

    . 2011. “Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?” Journal of Economic Literature 49 (2): 366–420.

    OpenUrlCrossRef
63. ↵
    1. van der Ploeg Frederick,
    2. Poelhekke Steven

    . 2017. “The Impact of Natural Resources: Survey of Recent Quantitative Evidence.” Journal of Development Studies 53 (2): 205–16.

    OpenUrl
64. 1. van der Ploeg Frederick,
    2. Venables Anthony J.

    2013. “Absorbing a Windfall of Foreign Exchange: Dutch Disease Dynamics.” Journal of Development Economics 103: 229–43.

    OpenUrlCrossRef
65. ↵
    1. Venables Anthony J

    . 2016. “Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has It Proven So Difficult?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 30 (1): 161–84.

    OpenUrlCrossRef
66. ↵
    1. Walsh Peru S.A

    . 2002. “EIA Gasoducto Camisea—Lima.” Lima: Walsh Peru S.A. Available at www.southperupanel.org/files/eias/03.%20CAMISEA-LIMA/VOL%20I/7.0%20Alternativas.pdf.
67. ↵
    1. Wang Haizhou,
    2. Song Mingzhou

    . 2011. “Ckmeans.1d.dp: Optimal k-Means Clustering in One Dimension by Dynamic Programming.” R Journal 3 (2): 29–33.

    OpenUrl