Climate, Adaptation, and the Value of Forestland: A National Ricardian Analysis of the United States

Christopher Mihiar; David J. Lewis

doi:10.3368/le.97.4.011620-0004R1

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Figure 1
Ricardian Value Function
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Figure 2
Spatial and Numerical Distribution of Composite Net Return to Forestry
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Figure 3
Estimated Marginal Effect of Average Annual Temperature and Total Annual Precipitation
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Figure 4
Adaptation Value Mapped over Confidence Region

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Table 1 Ricardian Estimation Data Summary

	Number of Counties	Mean Net Return per Acre ($/acre) (St. Dev.)	Mean Temperature (°C) (St. Dev.)	Range of Temperature (°C)	Annual Precipitation (mm) (St. Dev.)	Range of Precipitation (mm)	Mean Percentage of County Land in Best Soil Quality Class
All forest types	1,865	30.45 (24.27)	12.86 (4.81)	(0.78, 24.33)	1,148.67 (315.80)	(298, 3,114)	59.8
Eastern forest types	1,624	29.90 (23.13)	13.76 (4.36)	(3.30, 24.33)	1,186.52 (222.01)	(452, 1,900)	64.2
Western forest types	241	35.28 (28.08)	6.79 (2.87)	(0.78, 17.54)	893.59 (605.15)	(298, 3,114)	30.4
White-red-jack pine	371	16.76 (25.12)	8.59 (2.94)	(3.30, 15.78)	1,083.57 (230.47)	(587, 1,900)	49.7
Spruce fir	151	22.35 (15.66)	5.97 (1.26)	(3.30, 8.75)	951.29 (209.66)	(603, 1,432)	49.4
Longleaf-slash pine	328	82.11 (35.39)	18.84(1.71)	(15.20, 24.33)	1,325.81 (145.20)	(1,095, 1,735)	68.3
Loblolly-shortleaf pine	878	113.69 (53.56)	16.38 (2.63)	(6.13,23.44)	1,295.35 (148.89)	(934, 1,765)	63.2
Oak-pine	1,207	33.62 (23.37)	14.47 (4.34)	(3.30, 23.86)	1,234.59 (194.47)	(556, 1,900)	60.3
Oak-hickory	1,531	14.91 (11.79)	13.85 (4.31)	(3.39, 23.86)	1,201.28 (203.13)	(556, 1,900)	64.0
Oak-gum-cypress	825	16.04(18.19)	16.92 (2.56)	(7.52, 23.86)	1,303.52 (145.70)	(830, 1,735)	67.8
Elm-ash-cottonwood	1,349	27.58 (24.67)	13.39 (4.46)	(2.83, 23.86)	1,167.72 (249.01)	(327, 2,876)	65.0
Maple-beech-birch	703	11.36 (21.51)	9.93 (2.98)	(3.30, 16.46)	1,060.93 (204.38)	(459, 1,678)	61.1
Aspen-birch	338	16.22 (16.38)	6.43 (2.06)	(1.33, 11.83)	892.42 (232.05)	(384, 1,330)	47.8
Eastern red cedar	235	34.46(31.90)	6.43 (2.83)	(5.48, 22.79)	1,228.50(159.09)	(589, 1,556)	60.6
Douglas fir	141	48.51 (32.97)	14.75 (2.67)	(1.61, 14.11)	1.064.84 (701.18)	(298, 3,114)	32.4
Hemlock-Sitka spruce	42	46.06 (40.60)	7.95 (1.93)	(3.92, 11.33)	1,669.93 (758.67)	(528, 3,114)	39.9
Ponderosa pine	139	21.50(15.84)	7.01 (2.40)	(2.62, 14.21)	701.90 (300.83)	(358, 1,974)	28.5
Lodgepole pine	72	23.12 (22.35)	4.81 (1.97)	(0.78, 9.67)	766.51 (280.93)	(463, 2,566)	27.8
Fir-spruce-mountain hemlock	119	12.93 (23.18)	5.76 (2.20)	(0.78, 10.86)	812.38 (424.80)	(400, 2,876)	29.1
Other western softwoods	26	3.63 (5.54)	5.74 (2.42)	(1.72, 10.60)	647.81 (224.42)	(408, 1,455)	22.4

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Table 2 Forest Group Type Ricardian Model Result Summary

	Average Marginal Effect of Temp Change (Std. Err.)	Average Marginal Effect of Precip Change (Std. Err.)	Climate Change Impact in $/acre (95% Cl)	Percentage of Acres in Significantly Positive Region	Percentage of Acres in Significantly Negative Region	Total Acres (Millions)	Poly-nomial Order (Temp / Precip)	Spatial Fixed Effect
Eastern U.S. Ricardian	3.75^*** (0.231)	−0.0007 (0.0049)	5.64 (2.61, 8.66)	71.4	10.6	454.6	4th / 4th	Subregion
Western U.S. Ricardian	2.13^* (1.24)	0.023^*** (0.0089)	3.53 (−7.45, 14.50)	12.1	0	32.1	2nd / 2nd	None
White-red-jack pine	4 34^*** (0.808)	−0.0548^*** (0.0112)	5.57 (1.18, 9.96)	70.4	0	7.8	2nd / 2nd	None
Spruce-fir	−2.35^** (1.128)	0.0208^*** (0.0070)	−7.81 (−21.39, 5.78)	0	42.0	10.0	2nd / 2nd	None
Longleaf-slash pine	16.32^*** (1.894)	0.0281 (0.0185)	14.06 (3.76, 24.35)	76.3	4.6	11.7	2nd / 2nd	Subregion
Loblolly-shortleaf pine	4.85^*** (1.295)	−0.0610^*** (0.0201)	−3.83 (−11.95, 4.29)	20.7	48.3	54.1	2nd /1st	Region
Oak-pine	2 Q9^*** (0.315)	0.0079^* (0.0047)	5.32 (−2.31, 7.63)	46.9	6.0	41.1	4th/2nd	Region
Oak-hickory	(0.139)	0.0052^** (0.0021)	2.15 (0.68, 3.61)	82.4	3.2	177.8	4th/2nd	Region
Oak-gum-cypress	2.02^*** (0.315)	−0.011^** (0.0046)	1.63 (−0.54, 3.80)	10.5	0	38.1	1st / 1st	None
Elm-ash-cottonwood	2 24^*** (0.303)	0.021^*** (0.0057)	5.26 (3.29, 7.23)	78.3	0.7	36.3	2nd / 2nd	Subregion
Maple-beech-birch	3 40^*** (0.586)	−0.013 (0.0090)	4.03 (0.44, 7.62)	58.2	0	59.0	2nd / 2nd	Subregion
Aspen-birch	−1.29^* (0.767)	−0.012 (0.0087)	−3.48 (−12.47, 5.51)	0	13.6	12.4	2nd / 2nd	Region
Eastern red cedar	5.80^*** (1.253)	−0.0145 (0.0260)	9.07 (2.28, 15.85)	86.9	0	2.3	2nd / 2nd	Region

↵* p < 0.1;
↵** p < 0.05;
↵*** p < 0.01.

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Table 3 Climate Change Effects and the Value of Extensive Margin Adaptation

	Eastern Composite (Annual Climate)				Western Composite (Annual Climate)				Eastern Composite (Seasonal Climate)
	Counties	Acres	% Share of Acres	Mean Impact	Counties	Acres	% Share of Acres	Mean Impact	Counties	Acres	% Share of Acres	Mean Impact
Significant positive impact	1,737	324.5	71.4	9.17	40	3.9	12.1	6.10	1,876	355.4	78.2	17.03
Significant negative impact	154	48.3	10.6	−7.33	0	—	—	—	0	—	—	—
Impact not significantly diff. from zero	290	81.8	18.0	—	222	28.2	87.9	—	305	137.7	30.3	—
Significant positive adaptation value	1,568	307.3	67.6	6.34^*	40	2.9	9.0	10.89^*	1,616	316.9	69.7	16.21^*

Note: Confidence intervals based on 5,000 Krinsky-Robb draws. Acres measured in millions. Mean impact is the acreage weighted climate change effect measured in annualized dollars per acre.
↵* Mean impact in the last row is mean adaptation value in the counties where adaptation value is positive and significant.