Article Figures & Data
Figures
- Figure 1
Prediction Errors, 1979–2019
- Figure 2
Estimated Loss Functions for Top-Quality Indiana Farmland: a, Quadratic Loss (p = 2); b, Linear Loss (p = 1)
Tables
Observed Projected Mean Std.Dev. Mean Std.Dev. RMSE MAE Indiana Top 2.421 6.320 0.471 2.089 6.453 4.907 Average 2.893 6.146 0.255 2.251 6.025 4.790 Poor 3.739 6.213 0.071 2.432 6.749 5.500 Transitional 1.742 9.298 2.424 2.789 9.323 7.164 North Top 2.504 6.707 0.212 2.354 6.247 4.831 Average 2.886 6.563 –0.068 2.613 6.569 5.216 Poor 3.888 7.481 –0.025 3.095 7.959 6.215 Northeast Top 2.602 7.912 0.088 2.175 7.745 5.893 Average 3.664 7.136 0.054 2.234 7.674 5.896 Poor 4.637 7.945 –0.441 2.716 9.069 6.777 West Central Top 2.386 7.175 0.462 2.252 6.861 5.315 Average 2.877 7.205 0.418 2.518 6.917 5.417 Poor 3.874 7.476 0.23 2.547 7.942 6.238 Central Top 2.087 6.578 0.173 2.711 6.461 5.048 Average 2.324 6.51 0.261 2.659 6.211 5.005 Poor 3.254 6.511 0.188 2.863 6.842 5.553 Southwest Top 2.815 8.245 0.429 1.681 8.141 5.826 Average 3.254 8.409 0.461 2.194 8.612 6.289 Poor 4.16 9.106 0.045 2.379 9.735 7.535 Southeast Top 3.029 7.663 0.564 1.879 7.539 5.858 Average 3.334 7.403 0.679 1.891 7.435 5.977 Poor 3.789 7.818 0.668 2.255 8.134 6.597 MZ Test HP Test Equation [1] Restrictions Equation [1] 
= 0 = 1 = (0,1)Indiana Top 2.123
(1.499)0.633
(0.647)2.006 0.322 1.149 1.950
(1.633)Average 2.572
(1.070)1.260
(0.391)5.777* 0.442 3.577* 2.638
(1.371)Poor 3.668
(1.064)0.981
(0.346)11.897** 0.003 5.952** 3.667**
(1.211)Transitional 0.867
(2.328)0.361
(0.604)0.139 1.121 0.792 –0.683
(1.530)North Top 2.200
(1.118)1.436
(0.320)3.870 1.851 2.746 2.292
(1.432)Average 2.959
(1.135)1.070
(0.372)6.791* 0.036 3.525* 2.954*
(1.377)Poor 3.909
(1.200)0.851
(0.338)10.608** 0.193 5.485** 3.913**
(1.179)Northeast Top 2.487
(1.204)1.302
(0.486)4.265* 0.387 2.664 2.514*
(1.236)Average 3.616
(1.145)0.893
(0.485)9.966** 0.049 5.132* 3.610**
(1.105)Poor 5.014
(1.131)0.855
(0.361)19.659** 0.160 10.284** 5.078**
(1.084)West Central Top 1.835
(1.223)1.193
(0.467)2.253 0.171 1.406 1.924
(1.919)Average 2.369
(1.011)1.215
(0.496)5.486* 0.189 2.971 2.459
(1.791)Poor 3.674
(1.283)0.875
(0.533)8.202** 0.055 4.136* 3.645*
(1.652)Central Top 1.950
(1.240)0.789
(0.365)2.474 0.335 1.244* 1.914
(1.567)Average 2.060
(1.047)1.010
(0.412)3.874 0.001 1.961 2.063
(1.394)Poor 3.114
(1.029)0.746
(0.401)9.161** 0.399 4.727* 3.066*
(1.112)Southwest Top 2.153
(1.422)1.542
(0.713)2.294 0.577 3.561* 2.386
(1.251)Average 2.894
(1.535)0.780
(0.566)3.556 0.151 2.213 2.793
(1.435)Poor 4.126
(1.481)0.777
(0.514)7.763** 0.189 3.882* 4.116**
(1.488)Southeast Top 2.213
(1.290)1.447
(0.658)2.942 0.462 3.369* 2.466*
(1.125)Average 2.485
(1.236)1.251
(0.633)4.045 0.157 2.950 2.655*
(1.095)Poor 3.238
(1.237)0.825
(0.577)6.858* 0.092 3.487* 3.121*
(1.207)Note: Standard errors in parentheses are heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent.
↵**,* Significance at the 1% and 5% levels, respectively.
Indiana Central Top 0.926
(0.902)0.565**(0.111) Top 1.014
(0.947)0.508**
(0.156)**Average 1.377
(0.892)0.520**
(0.147)Average 1.239
(0.949)0.421
(0.129)Poor 2.547*
(1.083)0.341*
(0.138)Poor 2.563*
(1.160)0.184
(0.141)Transitional –0.413
(1.622)0.069
(0.172)North Southwest Top 1.227
(0.975)0.481**
(0.154)Top 2.316
(1.605)0.081
(0.171)Average 1.709
(1.154)0.421**
(0.145)Average 2.513
(1.586)0.166
(0.157)Poor 3.402*
(1.652)0.128
(0.181)Poor 3.299
(1.690)0.214
(0.136)Northeast Southeast Top 2.237
(1.260)0.125
(0.185)Top 2.435*
(1.203)0.017
(0.124)Average 3.483*
(1.314)0.085
(0.204)Average 2.758*
(1.214)0.016
(0.168)Poor 6.076**
(1.754)–0.183
(0.176)Poor 3.057*
(1.190)0.047
(0.168)West Central Top 0.740
(0.808)0.597**
(0.154)Average 0.997
(0.815)0.595**
(0.149)Poor 2.148*
(0.963)0.418**
(0.145)Note: Standard errors in parentheses are heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent.
↵**,* Significance at the 1% and 5% levels, respectively.
Instrument Set Quadratic Loss
(p = 2)Linear Loss
(p = 1)(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Indiana Top 0.150**
(0.072)0.155**
(0.074)0.151**
(0.072)0.237**
(0.067)0.251**
(0.069)0.235**
(0.067)Average 0.117**
(0.059)0.126**
(0.060)0.117**
(0.059)0.202**
(0.063)0.228**
(0.066)0.188**
(0.062)Poor 0.110**
(0.054)0.112**
(0.052)0.110**
(0.052)0.167**
(0.059)0.180**
(0.061)0.165**
(0.059)Transitional 0.539
(0.104)0.534
(0.104)0.584
(0.103)0.550
(0.079)0.551
(0.079)0.551
(0.079)North Top 0.143**
(0.004)0.142**
(0.004)0.140**
(0.004)0.210**
(0.004)0.206**
(0.004)0.206**
(0.004)Average 0.098**
(0.046)0.107**
(0.047)0.096**
(0.045)0.225*
(0.066)0.229*
(0.066)0.225*
(0.066)Poor 0.125**
(0.047)0.115**
(0.041)0.112**
(0.040)0.338
(0.075)0.331
(0.074)0.330
(0.074)Northeast Top 0.297
(0.091)0.297
(0.090)0.290
(0.089)0.322
(0.074)0.331
(0.074)0.314**
(0.073)Average 0.191**
(0.069)0.191**
(0.069)0.191**
(0.069)0.224**
(0.066)0.237**
(0.067)0.221
(0.066)Poor 0.120**
(0.045)0.121**
(0.045)0.109**
(0.042)0.239**
(0.067)0.234**
(0.067)0.233**
(0.067)West Central Top 0.213**
(0.083)0.201**
(0.081)0.198**
(0.080)0.260**
(0.069)0.245**
(0.068)0.239**
(0.067)Average 0.152**
(0.069)0.158**
(0.070)0.151**
(0.069)0.263**
(0.070)0.250**
(0.068)0.248**
(0.068)Poor 0.186**
(0.080)0.193**
(0.080)0.182**
(0.080)0.166**
(0.059)0.177**
(0.060)0.163**
(0.058)Top 0.183**
(0.068)0.219**
(0.077)0.179**
(0.067)0.411
(0.078)0.418
(0.078)0.408
(0.078)Average 0.180**
(0.072)0.204**
(0.075)0.181**
(0.072)0.296**
(0.072)0.316**
(0.074)0.291**
(0.072)Poor 0.188**
(0.072)0.180**
(0.067)0.188**
(0.066)0.235**
(0.067)0.256**
(0.069)0.222**
(0.066)Southwest Top 0.239**
(0.079)0.222**
(0.075)0.205**
(0.072)0.348
(0.075)0.346
(0.075)0.335
(0.075)Average 0.174**
(0.064)0.162**
(0.062)0.163**
(0.062)0.346
(0.075)0.342
(0.075)0.335
(0.075)Poor 0.169**
(0.068)0.176**
(0.070)0.164**
(0.067)0.255**
(0.069)0.259**
(0.069)0.254**
(0.069)Southeast Top 0.294
(0.085)0.291**
(0.085)0.301
(0.085)0.345
(0.075)0.349
(0.075)0.318**
(0.074)Average 0.270**
(0.080)0.268**
(0.080)0.231**
(0.075)0.375
(0.077)0.375
(0.077)0.365
(0.076)Poor 0.261**
(0.078)0.265**
(0.078)0.253**
(0.076)0.288**
(0.072)0.300**
(0.072)0.285**
(0.071)Note: Standard errors in parentheses are heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent.
↵**,* Restriction rejected at the 1% and 5% levels, respectively.
Instrument Set Quadratic Loss
(p = 2)Linear Loss
(p = 1)(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Indiana Top = 0.527.356** 25.791** 27.359** 19.983** 17.182** 20.523 γ = 3.876 3.860 3.884 4.762 3.953 4.904 Average = 0.545.900** 41.592** 45.881** 26.897** 20.192** 31.096 γ = 3.657 3.283 3.698 4.892 3.436 5.579 Poor = 0.554.962** 57.061** 58.194** 35.490** 30.641** 36.058** γ = 2.513 2.088 2.515 3.499 2.824 3.569 Transitional = 0.50.288 0.108 3.845 0.571 0.682 0.775 γ = 0.146 0.001 3.180 0.160 0.267 0.356 North Top = 0.537.314** 34.827** 38.672** 22.985** 24.173** 24.209** γ = 3.944 4.430 4.425 2.748 3.002 3.009 Average = 0.579.392** 72.915** 86.023** 20.925** 20.005** 21.076** γ = 3.976 3.593 3.983 3.622 3.387 3.659 Poor = 0.565.602** 90.684** 96.214** 6.219 7.447 7.545 γ = 2.144 2.188 2.360 1.511 2.272 2.331 Northeast Top = 0.55.350 5.297 6.055 8.980** 7.468 10.284 γ = 0.325 0.234 0.537 3.162 2.285 3.865 Average = 0.520.096** 20.103** 20.101** 21.154** 18.296** 22.026** γ = 0.129 0.122 0.129 3.678 2.920 3.887 Poor = 0.571.482** 71.148** 85.760** 15.819** 16.947** 17.123** γ = 0.107 0.002 0.927 0.841 1.189 1.242 West Central Top = 0.516.401** 18.343** 18.820** 15.258** 18.348** 19.582** γ = 4.449 4.676 4.720 3.316 4.306 4.654 Average = 0.529.629** 27.618** 29.743** 14.709** 17.322** 17.710** γ = 3.995 3.861 4.008 3.121 3.996 4.116 Poor = 0.518.107** 16.513** 19.118** 35.640** 31.757** 36.823** γ = 2.613 1.869 3.129 3.517 2.992 3.661 Central Top = 0.526.330** 17.685** 28.224** 4.445 2.934 5.177 γ = 4.945 4.276 4.982 3.137 1.815 3.763 Average = 0.524.282** 19.261** 24.339** 13.359** 9.951** 14.098** γ = 4.555 3.688 4.651 5.327 3.690 5.639 Poor = 0.520.584** 24.305** 24.099** 18.546** 14.054** 21.779** γ = 1.824 1.409 1.823 2.991 1.555 3.829 Southwest Top = 0.512.144** 15.225** 18.985** 4.326 4.762 6.641 γ = 1.210 1.661 2.464 0.256 0.553 1.778 Average = 0.527.951** 31.852** 32.040** 4.622 5.423 6.712 γ = 2.188 2.588 2.913 0.459 0.995 1.821 Poor = 0.525.395** 23.149** 27.029** 14.172** 13.465** 14.388** γ = 1.827 1.627 1.998 1.597 1.340 1.674 Southeast Top = 0.55.914 6.085 6.574 4.949 4.130 9.645 γ = 0.028 0.012 1.042 0.680 0.121 3.527 Average = 0.58.285 8.476** 15.213** 2.682 2.734 4.584 γ = 0.114 0.009 2.195 0.012 0.052 1.450 Poor = 0.59.895** 9.248** 11.275** 12.275** 10.063** 12.707** γ = 0.489 0.184 0.766 3.498 2.473 3.684 ↵**,* Significance at the 1% and 5% levels, respectively.
