The Influence of Projected Outcomes on Preferences over Alternative Regulations: Evidence from a Recreational Fishery

Abstract

The expected outcomes arising from alternative policies on respondent choice have not been sufficiently accounted for in stated preference studies. We accordingly develop a framework to quantitatively assess the influence of outcome provision and illustrate with a choice experiment in a recreational fishery. The application suggests that participants are more likely to choose the status quo and low-cost options when outcomes are not provided, and these conservative behaviors might reflect the higher dispersion in anglers’ utility in tautog (Tautoga onitis) fishing. Further investigations with latent class models suggest that the outcome provision makes a significant share of respondents changing their choice pattern. (JEL H41, Q22)