The Reliability of Delphi Surveys and Benefit Transfer to Predict Outcomes of Contingent Valuation Estimates

Anders Dugstad and Ståle Navrud


Benefit transfer (BT) and valuation experts’ assessments in Delphi Contingent Valuation (CV) surveys have been used as an alternative to prohibitively expensive worldwide CV surveys to obtain estimates of total non-use values of global public goods. We test the reliability of international BT and Delphi CV estimates by comparing them to a population CV survey of Norwegian households’ willingness-to-pay (WTP) for Amazon Rainforest preservation plans. The Delphi CV method predicts WTP and scope effects in line with conventional BT, motivating further testing of the Delphi CV method as a time- and cost-saving way of valuing global public goods.