To tell or not to tell: Preference elicitation with and without emphasis on scientific uncertainty

Margrethe Aanesen, Claire Armstrong, Trude Borch, Reinhold Fieler, Vera Hausner, Gorm Kipperberg, Henrik Lindhjem and Ståle Navrud


Decisions about the optimal use of coastal and marine resources must be taken under high uncertainty about environmental impacts and may conflict with public perception of the risk associated with current blue growth initiatives. In a discrete choice experiment conducted in valuation workshops in five communities in Arctic Norway, we examine public preferences for various aquaculture expansion paths. Respondents prefer a smaller expansion in terms of the number of aquaculture sites compared to the planned expansion. Emphasizing scientific uncertainty regarding the negative environmental impacts of aquaculture leads to lower resistance against the planned expansion.