Open Access

The Impact of Weather Risk on Tenure Security

Evidence from smallholder farmers in Tanzania

Lisa Murken, Gregor Mager, Rahel Laudien, Kati Kraehnert and Christoph Gornott


We analyze if exposure to weather risk affects the tenure security of smallholder farmers in rural Tanzania. Drawing on a household panel survey with three waves and high-resolution weather data, our identification strategy exploits exogenous variation in precipitation across time and space. Results from household fixed effects estimations show that exposure to weather risk significantly lowers farmers’ perceived tenure security, while it increases land conflicts. Moreover, weather risk influences the likelihood that farmers acquire land certificates. These findings suggest that both land formalization and land dispute resolution mechanisms are needed to cushion the impacts of weather risk.


This open access article is distributed under the terms of the CC-BY-NC-ND license ( and is freely available online at: