PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - McGough, Bruce
AU  - Plantinga, Andrew J.
AU  - Provencher, Bill
TI  - The Dynamic Behavior of Efficient Timber Prices
AID  - 10.2307/3147146
DP  - 2004 Feb 01
TA  - Land Economics
PG  - 95--108
VI  - 80
IP  - 1
4099  - http://le.uwpress.org/content/80/1/95.short
4100  - http://le.uwpress.org/content/80/1/95.full
SO  - Land Econ2004 Feb 01; 80
AB  - A simple theoretical model of a timber market finds that there exists a rational expectations equilibrium in which prices evolve according to a stationary A R (1) process. Simulations analyze a model with a more general representation of timber stock dynamics. Implications for the optimal harvesting literature are: 1) market efficiency provides little justification for random walk prices; 2) unit root tests, used in previous studies to analyze the informational efficiency of timber markets, do not distinguish between efficient and inefficient markets; and 3) failure to recognize asymmetric disturbances in time-series analyses of historical timber prices can lead to sub-optimal harvesting rules. (JEL Q23)