TY - JOUR T1 - Changing with the Tide: Semiparametric Estimation of Preference Dynamics JF - Land Economics JO - Land Econ SP - 717 LP - 745 DO - 10.3368/le.90.4.717 VL - 90 IS - 4 AU - Thijs Dekker AU - Paul Koster AU - Roy Brouwer Y1 - 2014/11/01 UR - http://le.uwpress.org/content/90/4/717.abstract N2 - We contrast the discovered preference hypothesis against the theory of coherent arbitrariness in a split-sample stated choice experiment on flood-risk exposure. A semiparametric local multinomial logit model is developed as an alternative to the Swait and Louviere (1993) test procedure controlling for preference dynamics within and between samples. The proposed model supports the discovered preference hypothesis by means of a decaying starting point bias. The Swait and Louviere (1993) test procedure reaches a different conclusion. It rejects the assumption of stable preferences, but most preference dynamics tend to be smoothed out, causing a more erratic pattern of preference dynamics. (JEL C14, Q51) ER -