RT Journal Article SR Electronic T1 Conservation Payments under Uncertainty JF Land Economics JO Land Econ FD University of Wisconsin Press SP 36 OP 56 DO 10.3368/le.91.1.36 VO 91 IS 1 A1 Engel, Stefanie A1 Palmer, Charles A1 Taschini, Luca A1 Urech, Simon YR 2015 UL http://le.uwpress.org/content/91/1/36.abstract AB The decision of whether to retain forest or convert to another land use is affected by uncertainty over future land use returns. This paper examines the design of conservation payments to landowners under uncertainty. Payments are either indexed to the returns from deforestation (agriculture), or to a market value associated with forest nonuse benefits. Payment size depends on the degree of correlation between payments and agricultural returns, and their relative volatility. Market-based payments for reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) are simulated for Brazilian soybean growers. Payments indexed to carbon prices are larger than those indexed to international soybean prices. (JEL Q23, Q24)