RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Global Food Demand and Carbon-Preserving Cropland Expansion under Varying Levels of Intensification
JF Land Economics
JO Land Econ
FD University of Wisconsin Press
SP 579
OP 592
DO 10.3368/le.92.4.579
VO 92
IS 4
A1 Johnson, Justin Andrew
A1 Runge, Carlisle Ford
A1 Senauer, Benjamin
A1 Polasky, Stephen
YR 2016
UL http://le.uwpress.org/content/92/4/579.abstract
AB Increasing demand for agricultural crops and a decline in the rate of yield improvements will require expansion of cropland (extensification), resulting in a loss of carbon storage. This paper uses global, spatially explicit data to analyze how extensification can be located to meet crop demand in a way that minimizes carbon losses under varying levels of intensification. Carbon-preserving extensification can reduce carbon loss by 7.3 billion tons compared to proportionally increasing extensification by 2050, valued at $1.3 trillion (2012 dollars) based on an estimated social cost of carbon of $181 per ton of carbon (∼$50 per ton CO2). (JEL Q18, Q24)