PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Dale T. Manning
AU  - Christopher Goemans
AU  - Alexander Maas
TI  - Producer Responses to Surface Water Availability and Implications for Climate Change Adaptation
AID  - 10.3368/le.93.4.631
DP  - 2017 Nov 01
TA  - Land Economics
PG  - 631--653
VI  - 93
IP  - 4
4099  - http://le.uwpress.org/content/93/4/631.short
4100  - http://le.uwpress.org/content/93/4/631.full
SO  - Land Econ2017 Nov 01; 93
AB  - Climate change is predicted to bring changes in weather and water availability. The effect on agriculture depends on the ability of producers to modify their practices in response to changing distributions. We develop a two-stage theoretical model of planting and irrigation decisions and use a unique dataset to empirically estimate how producers respond to changes in expected water availability and deviations from expectations. As water supplies decrease, producers respond by planting fewer acres and concentrating the application of water. Highlighting the importance of adaptation in this context, failure to account for this behavioral response overstates climate change impacts by 17%. (JEL Q15, Q25)