RT Journal Article SR Electronic T1 Welfare with Imperfect Foreknowledge: The Case of Risk Aversion JF Land Economics JO Land Econ FD University of Wisconsin Press SP 43 OP 55 DO 10.3368/le.96.1.43 VO 96 IS 1 A1 Holzer, Jorge A1 McConnell, Kenneth YR 2020 UL http://le.uwpress.org/content/96/1/43.abstract AB We study the use of discrete choice models in the context of recreation when there may be discrepancy between the anticipated (ex ante) and the experienced quality of site attributes due to imperfect information. Unlike previous literature on the topic, we relax the assumption of risk neutrality. Adopting a model with quasi-linear preferences, we characterize the disparity between ex ante and ex post utility by decomposing expected utility into a term stemming from bias in beliefs and a component representing willingness to pay for reducing uncertainty in site attributes. Our results show that ex post corrections of welfare losses are attenuated by greater dispersion in beliefs about amenities. (JEL D61, Q26)