PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Zhang, Wendong
AU  - Lence, Sergio H.
AU  - Kuethe, Todd
TI  - Are Expert Opinions Accurate? Panel Data Evidence from the Iowa Land Value Survey
AID  - 10.3368/le.97.4.080820-0124R
DP  - 2021 Oct 08
TA  - Land Economics
PG  - 080820-0124R
4099  - http://le.uwpress.org/content/early/2021/09/28/le.97.4.080820-0124R.short
4100  - http://le.uwpress.org/content/early/2021/09/28/le.97.4.080820-0124R.full
AB  - Opinion surveys are the dominant method to gauge U.S. farmland values. However, there lacks a systematic evaluation of how opinions are formulated and adjust over time. Using panel data of agricultural professionals from the Iowa Land Value Survey over 2005-2015, we investigate how surveyed experts update their farmland value estimates. We find that experts almost fully correct their prior “errors” in a single period. Expert’ opinions also incorporate most of the prevailing price innovations in one period. Our Bayesian estimation technique simultaneously addresses the unobservability and non-stationarity of prevailing farmland values, and the Nickell bias in short dynamic panels.