RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Are Expert Opinions Accurate? Panel Data Evidence from the Iowa Land Value Survey
JF Land Economics
JO Land Econ
FD University of Wisconsin Press
SP 080820-0124R
DO 10.3368/le.97.4.080820-0124R
A1 Zhang, Wendong
A1 Lence, Sergio H.
A1 Kuethe, Todd
YR 2021
UL http://le.uwpress.org/content/early/2021/09/28/le.97.4.080820-0124R.abstract
AB Opinion surveys are the dominant method to gauge U.S. farmland values. However, there lacks a systematic evaluation of how opinions are formulated and adjust over time. Using panel data of agricultural professionals from the Iowa Land Value Survey over 2005-2015, we investigate how surveyed experts update their farmland value estimates. We find that experts almost fully correct their prior “errors” in a single period. Expert’ opinions also incorporate most of the prevailing price innovations in one period. Our Bayesian estimation technique simultaneously addresses the unobservability and non-stationarity of prevailing farmland values, and the Nickell bias in short dynamic panels.