PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Zhang, Wendong
AU  - Lence, Sergio H.
AU  - Kuethe, Todd
TI  - Are Expert Opinions Accurate? Panel Data Evidence from the Iowa Land Value Survey
AID  - 10.3368/le.97.4.080820-0124R
DP  - 2021 Nov 01
TA  - Land Economics
PG  - 875--892
VI  - 97
IP  - 4
4099  - http://le.uwpress.org/content/97/4/875.short
4100  - http://le.uwpress.org/content/97/4/875.full
SO  - Land Econ2021 Nov 01; 97
AB  - Opinion surveys are the dominant method for gauging U.S. farmland values. However, there is no systematic evaluation of how opinions are formulated and change over time. Using panel data of agricultural professionals from the Iowa Land Value Survey over 2005–2015, we investigate how surveyed experts update their farmland value estimates. We find that experts almost fully correct their prior “errors” in a single period. Experts’ opinions also incorporate most of the prevailing price innovations in one period. Our Bayesian estimation technique simultaneously addresses the unobservability and nonstationarity of prevailing farmland values and the Nickell bias in short dynamic panels.