Table 4

First-Stage Results

ln_PAln_IA
Swing_county (t) × Presidential election year (t – 1)  0.7009** (0.2776)  0.9333*** (0.2634)
Stafford, t – 1–0.0464 (0.0299)  0.0524** (0.0249)
Non-Stafford, t – 1  0.5365*** (0.0835)  0.3509*** (0.0763)
Rain, t  0.2190*** (0.0271)  0.2189*** (0.0241)
Rain, t – 1  1.3734*** (0.0327)  1.0109*** (0.0286)
Rain, t – 2  0.4807*** (0.0289)  0.2820*** (0.0254)
Rain, t – 3–0.0586* (0.0318)  0.0258 (0.0257)
Income, t – 1  0.4188 (0.5611)–0.8156** (0.3963)
Loan, t – 1  0.0524 (0.0345)  0.0329 (0.0213)
Population, t – 1–1.8535*** (0.6184)  0.9828** (0.4336)
Constant13.4378 (9.0996)–0.9792 (6.6762)
N34,36634,366
First-stage F-statistics17.2611.88

  • Note: The dependent variable is log of PA grants and log of IA grants in the first and second columns, respectively. The model includes both the year and county fixed effects. In parentheses are standard errors clustered by congressional district.

  • ↵* p < 0.1;

  • ↵** p < 0.05;

  • ↵*** p < 0.01.