Relative Importance of Alternative Drivers of Land Use Changes. 1988-2005
| Scenario | Farm | Forest | Grass | Water | Urban | Unused | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) |
| Baseline | 2.0 | 0% | -4.8 | 0% | -11.1 | 0% | 0.4 | 0% | 3.6 | 0% | 10.0 | 0% |
| No change in urban land value | 3.6 | 81% | -5.0 | -2% | -9.9 | 11% | 0.8 | 74% | 3.2 | −11% | 7.3 | -27% |
| No change in agricultural land value | 2.1 | 2% | -5.0 | -3% | -11.9 | -7% | 0.4 | -3% | 4.2 | 17% | 10.2 | 2% |
| No change in urban income | 0.9 | -54% | -4.4 | 10% | −14.9 | -34% | -0.2 | −142% | 3.0 | −17% | 15.6 | 57% |
| No change in rural income | 3.8 | 87% | -5.3 | −10% | −13.1 | −18% | 0.8 | 77% | 4.1 | 14% | 9.9 | −1% |
| No change in road density | 1.3 | -34% | -4.0 | 18% | −12.0 | -8% | 0.5 | 9% | 3.5 | -3% | 10.8 | 8% |
| No public agricultural investment | 1.8 | -11% | -4.5 | 7% | −10.0 | 10% | 0.4 | −17% | 3.4 | -4% | 9.0 | -10% |
Note: The odd columns report the simulated land use changes (million hectares); the even columns report the difference between counterfactual and baseline acreage change, divided by the absolute value of baseline acreage change. A positive percentage change indicates that the increase is larger or the decrease is smaller compared to the baseline. A negative percentage change indicates the opposite.