Marginal Effects on the Probabilities of Farmland Conversion, 2000-2005
| Independent Variable | To Farm | To Forest | To Grass | To Water | To Urban | To Unused |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Land quality | 0.035 | 0.002 | -0.072*** | 0.064*** | 0.013 | -0.042*** |
| (0.033) | (0.018) | (0.019) | (0.017) | (0.019) | (0.012) | |
| Terrain slope | 0.324*** | 0.088*** | 0.028* | -0.067*** | -0.363*** | -0.011*** |
| (0.117) | (0.017) | (0.016) | (0.017) | (0.133) | (0.003) | |
| Elevation | -1.588*** | 0.434*** | 1.749*** | 0.778*** | −1.407*** | 0.033*** |
| (0.283) | (0.084) | (0.087) | (0.083) | (0.311) | (0.013) | |
| Precipitation | -3.641*** | 2.616*** | −1.231*** | 1.004*** | 1.534*** | -0.282*** |
| (0.407) | (0.206) | (0.179) | (0.220) | (0.354) | (0.079) | |
| Temperature | 0.185*** | -0.308*** | 0.015 | 0.021 | 0.085** | 0.002 |
| (0.040) | (0.016) | (0.014) | (0.018) | (0.040) | (0.002) | |
| Standard error of precipitation | 2.782** | -3.150*** | −2.741*** | 1.293 | 1.664 | 0.152 |
| (1.309) | (0.623) | (0.857) | (0.801) | (1.251) | (0.420) | |
| Standard error of temperature | 0.114 | -2.465*** | -3.324*** | -0.637 | 6.769*** | -0.458*** |
| (1.203) | (0.479) | (0.514) | (0.623) | (1.374) | (0.138) | |
| Road density | 0.604*** | -0.678*** | 0.054 | -0.077 | 0.141*** | -0.044*** |
| (0.095) | (0.057) | (0.051) | (0.071) | (0.030) | (0.018) | |
| Agricultural investment | 0.528** | -0.415*** | -0.303*** | 0.076 | 0.102* | 0.013 |
| (0.234) | (0.126) | (0.120) | (0.195) | (0.058) | (0.019) | |
| Per hectare urban GDP | -2.208*** | 1.044*** | 0.620** | -0.427** | 0.708*** | 0.264*** |
| (0.520) | (0.245) | (0.256) | (0.179) | (0.219) | (0.097) | |
| Per hectare agricultural GDP | -9.129 | 2.531 | -0.905 | -0.145 | 7.951 | -0.303 |
| (16.776) | (7.497) | (6.089) | (1.951) | (5.977) | (0.282) | |
| Per capita urban GDP | -0.133** | −0.149*** | 0.051 | 0.083*** | 0.176*** | -0.027*** |
| (0.056) | (0.032) | (0.040) | (0.030) | (0.025) | (0.009) | |
| Per capita rural GDP | -2.922*** | -0.905** | 1.623*** | 1.949*** | 0.263 | -0.009 |
| (1.109) | (0.446) | (0.376) | (0.348) | (1.132) | (0.027) |
Note: Marginal effects are evaluated at the weighted sample means; the weighted means are calculated by weighting all values of variables using the proportions of land use in 2000. The standard errors are estimated using delta method. The magnitude of marginal effects is enlarged by 100 times.
↵*, **, and *** indicate statistical significance at the 10%, 5%, and 1% levels, respectively.